The Antithesis
Okay… So my analysis of the Qs volatility (QQV) turned out to be completely and utterly wrong. The Qs did not experience any significant upward movement this week. Actually they’ve been dropping like a rock, and their volatility is still going up. It’s bouncing off some of the fibonacci levels that I drew in my chart, but its not really treating them as significant resistance.
I knew when I did this analysis that I had not been rigorous because I didn’t have much time to look at bonds, commodities, or currencies. I didn’t expect to be so completely wrong though.
So maybe I should continue my analysis, but with a different strategy. I’ll continue to analyze the markets and come up with my trading thesis. Then I’ll do the exact opposite. If I could have replayed my trading history since March 1st in this way, and including the opposite of my QQV predicition, I’d be up over 40% on the year. I figure that I could ride out this anti-thesis play for a while. Then once I start losing with it I’ll know that my analsys is actually getting good and I’ll switch.