I used to take snapshots of this riverfront factory when I started
riding the PATH train almosy a year ago. Something about it really
caught my attention. Now I really couldn’t tell you what it was.
Maybe it was the smokestacks. There’s five huge columns coming out of
one building, and two of them are smaller in diameter than the other
three. It’s curious. It’s also strange in the way it sits exactly on
the water’s edge. This is surely a sign that the factory dumped into
the river for sometime.
It’s a dilapidated mystery. I wonder who owns it, if it still operates,
etc. I can see the smokestacks from my office building. They are way
off in the distance, past the Jersey city skyline, but they are there.
I guess I could still tell you what about it caught my attention.
Going through the seasons here reminds me that I’ve been around a
while. I’ve looked at this factory five days a week through fall,
winter, spring, summer, and soon fall again. Somehow, I’m surprised to
be going through the seasons. The seasons are so familiar, but I’ve
become used to adapting to new things so often. The seasons are
juxtaposed with the landscape. I have always known the seasons, but
never known a life like this. The busy daily life, surrounded by some
many people, and the urgency are all new. They too, are becoming
familiar. That is the strangest feeling. It’s like when you catch
yourself calling a new place home without thinking about it. The fact
that you didn’t think twice of calling it home means it’s home, but if
an old friend points it out to you its a shock.
Archive for the ‘reflection’ Category
Old friend
Wednesday, August 16th, 2006Re-evaluation
Wednesday, August 9th, 2006It’s only been two days that I’ve had a subscription to the Elliot Wave
Financial Forecast service and already I am sold. This could have
something to do with the fact that their forecast suggests what I need
in order to exit my option position profitably, but let’s just assume
that I’m objective for a moment.
I’ve read through Frost and Pretcher’s “Elliot Wave Principle” over the
last couple months. It was by no means a light read. It was filled,
make that jam packed, with rules, guidelines, ratios, and plenty of
chart examples. I re-read most of it and found that I absorbed much
more on the second time around.
After my second reading I decided to try and put the theory into
practice. This was a triumphant day for me. I was quite pleased. If I
remember right, my very first wave count was no correct, who would
expect it to be? I thought to myself that I would practice the
art/science of wave counting until I become proficient enough to publish
my own forecasting service.
I knew that Robert Pretcher was still actively forecasting the markets,
however, and I was quite curious to see HIS wave counts.
I have since subscribed and so far I love it.
In the half dozen issues inlcuded with my subscription, I have found
incredible detail in the elliotwave.com team’s analysis of the financial
markets. They set specific targets and also include when to asume
they’ve been wrong. Even better, they don’t forecast when the aren’t
certain what the market’s next move will be. If they cannot find a
satisfactory wave count they admit it. I think this is much better than
constantly forecasting whether or not you are sure.
It remains to be seen if I am able to correctly interpret their reports
and put them to profitable trading use consistently.
I am really impressed with the ammount of work that must go into these
reports. It looks much better than something that ibcould manage to
create on a part time basis. However I am still holding out that if I
continue to study the application of the wave theory through this
newsletter, I will one day be able to use it on my own.
Crystal ball… Only 59 buck a month!!
Tuesday, August 8th, 2006The future, such a mysterious thing. Never arriving but always
approaching. Many people have desired to know the future. We’ve even
seen several TV series based on that idea. Why are we so interested? I
think that people are always thinking about their immediate future,
imagining what will happen in the next 5 minutes, hour, or more. That’s
how we become surprised. We set up a number of expectations and surprise
happens when we observe soemthing that we couldn’t have predicted.
So what if someone offered you a crystal ball? Would you buy it? Would
you believe that they could have possibly found a way to look into the
future? I’ve heard that some religions hold that only God can know the
future… Is that a real belief? If so, what about things like the
tides? I can tell you when high tides will occur on May 9th, 2027.
Does that qualify as knowing the future? I wonder…
Another week done (basically)
Friday, August 4th, 2006This concludes another week! Yea!
That vaction to Maine really gave me some perspective on the kind of
life I’m living. When I’m in the routine I don’t really think about or
realize how hectic the schedule is. I’m still enjoying it though. It’s
not easy, but it’s not hard. It’s something that I can stay interested
in.
Almost one year has passed since I started the commuter lifestyle. So
far, so good. Most days I’m either reading a book, blogging, and
reading webpages. It’s not as if my train time goes by wasted.
Sometimes I just take the time to relax from my day. I like to have the
train ride on those trying days because it gives me a place to
decompress before hittin home.
I don’t want a life of leisure. I always want to have work to do. I
think seeing the product of your efforts is one of the great joys in
life. Of course it comes behind the love of companionship or family,
but it’s still up there. I’m still feeling like I really found a great
place for myself.
Getting used to it
Monday, July 31st, 2006That can be the key to stressful situations. If they are apart of your
work, then it is necessary. I asked a friend how his most recent
assignment was going, and that’s what he said, “I’m getting used to
it.” I think that’s where the calm of maturity comes in. When you are
either young or inexperienced, the pressure is more extreme. A seasoned
old pro, however, can calmly wade through the choas to the other side.
Back to business
Monday, July 31st, 2006I’m back from a much needed week-long vacation. This coming week should
prove to be a busy one, and the next one even busier. I’m going to try
and exit that options position I opened last week if the market keeps
moving up. If I have to do that I’ll be locking in my most humbling
losses yet. Oi vey!
The first day back is always a shock. When I’m coming back from Maine,
I’m coming from the wilderness. I wake up in a little house overlooking
the penobscot. It’s home to eagles, osprey, deer and moose. 24 hours
later I’m in the mix on broadway in the morning rush. I’m weaving
through the crowd on my morning commute, toward my office in a
skyscraper overlooking the New York harbor. The amount of change that I
see in those short 24 hours is a real trip.
Back at ‘em today!!
Gratitude
Wednesday, July 19th, 2006I am so thankful for such a day. It was simple, and like many others
recently, but still full of so many good things. I’ve had demanding
work to do. I’ve had two excellent meals and I assume I will have a
third shortly. I’m going home to a woman I love dearly, who is hard
working, beautiful and kind. I have great friends who are also working
hard to make it, just as I am. There continues to be a stream of
positive events in my life. I feel that it is important to take stock
in this way every once in a while. It is necessary to count your
blessings, even though they will probably be too many to name. Love,
family, friends, health, and gainful employment are at the top of my
list.
I’m inspired to be grateful because of role models I grew up with, but
also by the daily events of my life. There is are people in New York
City of all degrees of prosperity, from the heirs of dynastic wealth to
the beggers who walk between the trains underground. There are parts of
the world that do not know peace as we do. There is so much to be
grateful for. I think that it takes a positive well rested mind to
fully appreciate them though. There are times when I am too exhausted
to think about anything outside of my lack of sleep.
Perhaps the ability to feel gratitude is itself a great privilege. Can
a person who has not eaten for a week be grateful for love? Can someone
who has poor health be grateful for wealth?
I think this could be the prime of my life.
The Antithesis
Thursday, July 13th, 2006Okay… So my analysis of the Qs volatility (QQV) turned out to be completely and utterly wrong. The Qs did not experience any significant upward movement this week. Actually they’ve been dropping like a rock, and their volatility is still going up. It’s bouncing off some of the fibonacci levels that I drew in my chart, but its not really treating them as significant resistance.
I knew when I did this analysis that I had not been rigorous because I didn’t have much time to look at bonds, commodities, or currencies. I didn’t expect to be so completely wrong though.
So maybe I should continue my analysis, but with a different strategy. I’ll continue to analyze the markets and come up with my trading thesis. Then I’ll do the exact opposite. If I could have replayed my trading history since March 1st in this way, and including the opposite of my QQV predicition, I’d be up over 40% on the year. I figure that I could ride out this anti-thesis play for a while. Then once I start losing with it I’ll know that my analsys is actually getting good and I’ll switch.
Frontrunners
Thursday, July 6th, 2006Do you ever wonder where the term frontrunners came from? I did but I
don’t have to wonder anymore.
It was coined to describe the small group of commuters who consistently
crowd into the first mid car compartment of the train so they can be the
first to step onto the station platform. These guys never quit. They
don’t care to sit because sitting means they are ten minutes later for
their next train. It doesn’t matter if they are tired, there is a wall
to lean on. They are silent. Silently knowing the faces of their
fellow frontrunners. They are the morning mutes who read books or
papers and have little gadgets for distraction.
What are you prepared to do?
Friday, June 23rd, 2006Today I find myself doing something that has taken years of preparation
in many aspects. However, it’s something that I would never have
guessed I would do during the preparation stage. I was working hard to
learn what I was being taught, but I never knew I would apply it in this
way. How could you know? I know few people who have had their lives
laid out as clear plans before them. Much of life is chance, and the
things you do today could be the preparation that makes you ready to act
on tomorrow’s opportunity.
What are you learning? What do you hope to be ready for?
