Gee, Think.

The future, such a mysterious thing. Never arriving but always
approaching. Many people have desired to know the future. We’ve even
seen several TV series based on that idea. Why are we so interested? I
think that people are always thinking about their immediate future,
imagining what will happen in the next 5 minutes, hour, or more. That’s
how we become surprised. We set up a number of expectations and surprise
happens when we observe soemthing that we couldn’t have predicted.
So what if someone offered you a crystal ball? Would you buy it? Would
you believe that they could have possibly found a way to look into the
future? I’ve heard that some religions hold that only God can know the
future… Is that a real belief? If so, what about things like the
tides? I can tell you when high tides will occur on May 9th, 2027.
Does that qualify as knowing the future? I wonder…

This concludes another week! Yea!
That vaction to Maine really gave me some perspective on the kind of
life I’m living. When I’m in the routine I don’t really think about or
realize how hectic the schedule is. I’m still enjoying it though. It’s
not easy, but it’s not hard. It’s something that I can stay interested
in.
Almost one year has passed since I started the commuter lifestyle. So
far, so good. Most days I’m either reading a book, blogging, and
reading webpages. It’s not as if my train time goes by wasted.
Sometimes I just take the time to relax from my day. I like to have the
train ride on those trying days because it gives me a place to
decompress before hittin home.
I don’t want a life of leisure. I always want to have work to do. I
think seeing the product of your efforts is one of the great joys in
life. Of course it comes behind the love of companionship or family,
but it’s still up there. I’m still feeling like I really found a great
place for myself.

That can be the key to stressful situations. If they are apart of your
work, then it is necessary. I asked a friend how his most recent
assignment was going, and that’s what he said, “I’m getting used to
it.” I think that’s where the calm of maturity comes in. When you are
either young or inexperienced, the pressure is more extreme. A seasoned
old pro, however, can calmly wade through the choas to the other side.

I’m back from a much needed week-long vacation. This coming week should
prove to be a busy one, and the next one even busier. I’m going to try
and exit that options position I opened last week if the market keeps
moving up. If I have to do that I’ll be locking in my most humbling
losses yet. Oi vey!
The first day back is always a shock. When I’m coming back from Maine,
I’m coming from the wilderness. I wake up in a little house overlooking
the penobscot. It’s home to eagles, osprey, deer and moose. 24 hours
later I’m in the mix on broadway in the morning rush. I’m weaving
through the crowd on my morning commute, toward my office in a
skyscraper overlooking the New York harbor. The amount of change that I
see in those short 24 hours is a real trip.
Back at ‘em today!!

I am so thankful for such a day. It was simple, and like many others
recently, but still full of so many good things. I’ve had demanding
work to do. I’ve had two excellent meals and I assume I will have a
third shortly. I’m going home to a woman I love dearly, who is hard
working, beautiful and kind. I have great friends who are also working
hard to make it, just as I am. There continues to be a stream of
positive events in my life. I feel that it is important to take stock
in this way every once in a while. It is necessary to count your
blessings, even though they will probably be too many to name. Love,
family, friends, health, and gainful employment are at the top of my
list.
I’m inspired to be grateful because of role models I grew up with, but
also by the daily events of my life. There is are people in New York
City of all degrees of prosperity, from the heirs of dynastic wealth to
the beggers who walk between the trains underground. There are parts of
the world that do not know peace as we do. There is so much to be
grateful for. I think that it takes a positive well rested mind to
fully appreciate them though. There are times when I am too exhausted
to think about anything outside of my lack of sleep.
Perhaps the ability to feel gratitude is itself a great privilege. Can
a person who has not eaten for a week be grateful for love? Can someone
who has poor health be grateful for wealth?
I think this could be the prime of my life.

Okay… So my analysis of the Qs volatility (QQV) turned out to be completely and utterly wrong. The Qs did not experience any significant upward movement this week. Actually they’ve been dropping like a rock, and their volatility is still going up. It’s bouncing off some of the fibonacci levels that I drew in my chart, but its not really treating them as significant resistance.

I knew when I did this analysis that I had not been rigorous because I didn’t have much time to look at bonds, commodities, or currencies. I didn’t expect to be so completely wrong though.

So maybe I should continue my analysis, but with a different strategy. I’ll continue to analyze the markets and come up with my trading thesis. Then I’ll do the exact opposite. If I could have replayed my trading history since March 1st in this way, and including the opposite of my QQV predicition, I’d be up over 40% on the year. I figure that I could ride out this anti-thesis play for a while. Then once I start losing with it I’ll know that my analsys is actually getting good and I’ll switch.

Do you ever wonder where the term frontrunners came from? I did but I
don’t have to wonder anymore.
It was coined to describe the small group of commuters who consistently
crowd into the first mid car compartment of the train so they can be the
first to step onto the station platform.  These guys never quit. They
don’t care to sit because sitting means they are ten minutes later for
their next train. It doesn’t matter if they are tired, there is a wall
to lean on. They are silent. Silently knowing the faces of their
fellow frontrunners. They are the morning mutes who read books or
papers and have little gadgets for distraction.

Today I find myself doing something that has taken years of preparation
in many aspects. However, it’s something that I would never have
guessed I would do during the preparation stage. I was working hard to
learn what I was being taught, but I never knew I would apply it in this
way. How could you know? I know few people who have had their lives
laid out as clear plans before them. Much of life is chance, and the
things you do today could be the preparation that makes you ready to act
on tomorrow’s opportunity.
What are you learning? What do you hope to be ready for?

I’m going to give myself a current trading sentiment of 5 out of 10.
This is a rating of how I feel in relation to the market and my trading
performance.
This past monday I lost about 18 percent on a trade. Turns out that if
I had held the position instead of selling at my 20 percent stop loss
rule, I could have broke even on Tuesday. If I had held it until this
afternoon I could have made at least 20 percent.
Currently I feel like I’m not equipped with the trading skills for such
a volatile market. I am aspiring to gain these tools though. If I had
the conviction that may play in .QQQSM on friday at 1.30 was right, I
might have bought more at 1.10 on monday. That would have reduced my
cost basis and by wedneday afternoon I would have been rolling in
profit.
So what does this mean for me? Well it’s another lesson learned, and I
am resolved to take a more disciplined approach to trading. When I say
I will be taking a more disciplined approach I mean doing more research
on market conditions, establishing thesis on where the market may go,
and then acting only just after my thesis has been proved. I think this
should increase my chance of being right.
I read the classic “How the Stock Market Works” to understand the
workings of the markets. I read jim cramer’s “Real Money” to learn
about investing and trading. I had my introduction to options
strategies with Freddie Rick from Market Essentials. I have had my
introduction to technical analysis with Constance Brown. I have had
some instruction via DVD from Darlene Nelson from BetterTrades.com. I
am now reading “Elliot Wave Principal” by Prechter and Frost. I plan to
keep reading for one.
I think that understanding the Elliot Wave principal should help with
market timing in the month and week timeframe. the use of price pivots,
tick, and trin should help me with intraday market timing. The patterns
and relationships detailed in Constance Brown’s “All About Technical
Analysis” will help me confirm trends I see through the wave
perspective. When I learn about intermarket analysis I will throw that
in the too, but that book hasn’t even arrived yet.
My plan is to use the weekends to develop plans for the upcoming week,
keep tabs on the market each day, and then pay close attention when the
market moves into my range.

5 out of 5 stars!!
I have to give this book the highest rating possible. It is a truly
inspiring, envirogorating read.
Its pages are filled with a set of simple lessons that clearly explain
the path to financial security. Teachings along the way include the
importance of determination, self-control, and hard work. This is the
most frank account of how to be successful that I have ever read. I
personally feel motivated to improve the way that I handle money. I
have already been putting 10% of my earnings away, but I am inspired to
do more. This book has ignited my desire to be more industrious and
hard working so that I may provide for a family and secure a comfortable
and enjoyable future.
This book comes with my highest recommendation.