Gee, Think.

I have started a new physical training discipline. It is a martial arts tradition called Hung Ga. The teaching lineage includes famed gung fu master Wong Fei Hung, and is descended from the Shaolin (Seiu Lum) temple of Southern China. I have only been training in this form for approximately 3.5 weeks. 25 days or so. Already I have seen great results. The school I’ve joined is based on the traditions and discipline of the old style. The class is formal, challenging, serious, and entertaining. It is similar to yoga in that the body gains a lot of strength without the use of weights. I continue to be amazed at what can be gained from holding a single stance or posture. Yoga first showed this to me and know I am experiencing it again in another form.

This is the start of a long career. I sincerely hope that I will be able to train with these people for a long time to come. I learn so much with each class, I can hardly wait to practice it on my own.

I have been practicing Ashtanga Yoga since July.  I took about two months off from it due to professional commitments, but have now gone every week for about two months, possibly more.  I still have so much to learn about this form of exercise, but I have already greatly improved in flexibility, strength, and endurance.

Strength in yoga practice is different than body building strength.  In yoga, strength is built by holding your body in varios poses.  The repetition of these poses slowly strengthens the muscles involved. I find that the muscles I’m strengthening through Ashtanga practice are mostly muscles that I hardly use.  I’m sure that’s partly because I have a desk job, but also because the yoga poses bring these rarely used muscles to your attention.  I have seen people in the class perform movements and motions that require incredible strength, flexibility, and control.  These movements are hard to describe without pictures.  Maybe I will post some references to specific poses later on.

What I really enjoy about Ashtanga is that flexibility and strength training go hand in hand.  Through the exercises you can strengthen your back but also make it easier for you to bend your back to tie your shoes, pick up the paper, etc.  I was a runner in middle and high school, so I stayed limber through daily stretching.  This stretching was haphazard when compared to yoga.  I did enough to loosen up, but never enough to dramatically increase my flexibility.  Yoga has given discipline to a part of exercise that I formerly considered the equivalent of parsely the side of a porterhouse steak.  Just there for decoration.

I would highly recommend yoga to anyone interested in increasing their strength and flexibility, not to mention relieving a bit of stress while you’re at it.

I’m back with another chart of my favorite financial instrument, the NASDAQ 100 trust QQQQ, better known as the Qs!

First of all, I am astounded at the way that they rallied since July 21st. I mean, wow! I thought that the Qs were going to be headed down even further, but no! They really surprised me there! They fell roughly 16.6% from May 8th to July 21st, and subsequently rallied 25% from July 21st to November 24th 2006. That’s an amazing range in 6 months! I certainly didn’t see that kind of recovery coming. However I am relentless, and will try to make another prediction of where the Qs are headed over the next 20 trading days. See the chart below:

Here we can see that the Qs were in a undeniable 45 degree uptrend for a good 4 months.  Two months since November 24th, we are essentially flat.  This means that the trend has died. The angle of ascent has disappeared.  It now seems that the Qs are facing resistance from a  line that was first touched back on April 4th 2001 as the day’s low at approximately 33.83.  On that day it was support.  Since then this line has been resitance on January 20th 2004, December 3rd & 15th 2004, and broken briefly on January 11th & 12th 2006.  It was tested again November 22nd and 24th 2006.  More recently we hit the line again on January 12th and 16th.  Suffice it to say that this line has been significant in the geometry of the Qs over the past years.  It has never been soundly broken since becoming resistance.  I venture that the Qs will not break this trendline.  They have been pushed quite hard over the last 7 months, and I think they’re ready for a retracement to at least the 42.20 area over the next 20 trading days.  However, we can see that the relative strength of the Qs is still respectable at the 58% level.  I see a coming advance to test the long time resistance line hitting at least 45.30 before turning lower.

I won’t have the time to actually trade this, but I’m still considering what options plays would be best based on this opinion of the market.  Deciding which way the market is going is one thing, but choosing the right options strategy is another entirely.  Something that crossed my mind was selling one-point options spreads.  Selling n out of the money a put spread as the Qs turn up from support, and then selling an out of the money call spread as the Qs turn down from resistance.  based on this analysis, I would choose something like the 43/44 put spread and the 45/46 call spread.

Remember, this is not an endorsement, just my own humble amatuer opinion.

Triumphantly, I’ve returned!!

I’ve recently been challenged with the opportunity to see just how far I can take my dedication to my profession. The past couple months were a trial in persistance, faith, and relentless self-affirmation. I met long hours as sunless mornings and late nights. I saw what it is like to become completely absorbed in a project work schedule. There were weeks when I saw my fiance only when she was either sleeping or driving me to the train station. I missed engagements with friends and family. This was a challenge for my own endurance, and also for our resiliency together. I personally felt the costs of such a schedule, and can now say without question how far I am willing to go and under which circumstances. Part of the cost to me from the process was time with these people. After paying those costs, I’ve realized how much I enjoy that time. I appreciate time with friends and family on an even deeper level now.

I learned the meaning of expectations and deadlines. I felt great about meeting deadlines, and felt the excrutiating anxiety of missing them. I put all of my energy into my work, even through the weekends, and there was still more to do. These were challenges that I had not previously met. I feel excellent about the effort I put forth, and that’s a feeling that I could not have from any lesser collection of demands.

The work that I do is very different from the work of any of the men from previous generations in my family, and yet we can still talk to each other about our seperate experiences as similiar tests of “what you’re made of”. I put forth the best effort I can because I hope to be able to hold myself up to their example of work ethic.
This experience was challenging, but something I see as a positive chapter in my life. It was a time when I was able to say that no matter how tired I feel, no matter what kind of pressure I’m feeling, I’m just going to keep going on because I believe that by going on, we’ll make it. We did make it. We got to the other side, and my team was able to contribute to the good of the whole through our individual self sacrifices. Knowing this is the best reward I could have for the effort I put forward.

20-Day 30-minute Candle Chart with Trendlines and Historic Resitance. 

 

The QQQQs Fund is seen here to be finding support in the lower trendline from July 21st of this summer’s sharp rise.  We can also see tha the QQQQs made a run at the 43.31 high from January 1st, but could not maintain the high ground.  The Trendline from July 21st was an especially important line of support over the past week.  It held the Qs up a good three times.  The price also bounced against 43.31 twice, and even broke through briefly.  It looks like we are coming to a turning point for the Qs as the Summer Trendline approaches the Resistance from the winter high of 43.31 on January 14th.

Here’s that illustration I was hoping to provide:

 

 

Click for a full size image.

Last week I posted a picture of the r month daily Qs chart and noted that the price was failling below a trendline which has offered three months of support. Since the Qs had already broken through the line I wrote that this could be the start of a trend reversal. Apparently not!!
The Qs have bounced back with avengance! The Qs fund made its intrady high at 43.31 on January 14th of this year. Will the fund be able to break this high? Currently 43.31 is in about the middle of the trend channel. If the Qs are to reach the upper end of the channel again they would easily roll past that high.
I hope to post a chart which illustrates what I’ve just described. This morning I had a little technical difficulty with the “mail chart” functionality at the optionsxpress website while I was on the train.
Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry

Here we see the Nasdaq 100 breaking below long term support.  The bottom trendline shown here extends since the trust began its upturn on July 21st of this year. In fact, we also see the typical kiss goodbye occur twice on Thursday.  On that day the index pops up to touch the trendline before falling down again.  This looks like a very bad sign for the QQQQs.  Ithink it could be a reversal in trend. 

I’ve also included a three month chart to show that the trend has been holding for a while now.  This chart shows the trend from August 7th.

 

Click the images to view the charts in more detail.

I’m working on a better way of displaying stock charts in my blog.  The last attempt wasn’t so good.  I’m going to do a little design engineering and come back with some comments and notes!